AUSTIN, Texas — Will Monkeypox lead to the next major global pandemic? Will Russia and NATO engage in direct conflict before 2023? Will inflation rise above 8.6% this year? These are some of the questions a prediction market has a reasonable idea of answering.
Though future events are always unknown, you can make reasonable bets about what may happen based on research, data and an understanding of trends. Crypto-based prediction markets make this “bet” explicit, by offering an opportunity for anyone to stake money on what they think will happen.
For example, one user raised the question whether NATO will expand in 2022. Right now, the open market is voting no – shares predicting NATO’s expansion are currently trading hands at 53 cents.
Though if these people are wrong, and NATO does expand, those that bought a “yes” vote (currently worth 47 cents) would have a greater economic return when the market closes and winners win the pot while losers lose their money.
"These are generally...
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