Thursday, Oct. 13, was one of the strangest days for asset markets in recent memory. Stocks, bonds and bitcoin all closed flat to up despite gloomy inflation news that should have triggered a broad sell-off. It’s an important moment for reflection on the all-too-human strangeness of markets – and the temptation and risk of explaining that strangeness with simplified narratives.
The day began with the release of new U.S. inflation numbers, which among other data showed that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September. That’s an acceleration from August, when month-over-month inflation was 0.1%, which had raised hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve had bent the curve on inflation.
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Thursday’s inflation data dashed those hopes. The immediate, sensible implication was that the Fed would continue raising...
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